We have used our unique Global Gas Model to investigate the impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe.
Deliveries of Russian gas to Europe face serious potential disruption following the collapse of the previous Ukrainian government.
Europe’s dependency on Russian gas is significant – in 2013 the continent imported 155 bcm, around one third of overall demand, with over 50% of imports routed via Ukraine.
Using our unique Global Gas Model, which produces forecasts of global gas flows and prices, we can simulate the impact of a disruption on Europe. In this example we've explored a scenario of a complete two-month outage.
Every part of Europe would be affected, with Eastern and Southern gas markets bearing the brunt of the disruption. Alternative Eastern flowing pipeline capacity would be unable to meet demand, leaving nations within these regions to rely on their strategic storage volumes instead.
Gas prices would subsequently rocket in Southern Europe as customers would have to compete with Asian buyers for LNG supplies, causing spot pricing to potentially increase to around US$16/mmbtu.
North West Europe has direct assess to Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline and would feel minimal affects of the disruption, however no region would escape entirely unscathed.
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Illustrative charts extracted from reports are available in the downloads panel.
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